These are a few rather specific things for which to look in 2004. Specific is dangerous, so let’s assume that the baby and the bathwater are both gone long before the Tarot has been put in the box. But here we go:

Look for the Democrat Party to remain divided. Okay, I’m starting with the obvious, but whomeve their eventual nominee, they will remain divided. If, by chance, the nominee is Howard Dean, we’re looking at the rebirth of a phenomenon we saw two decades ago: [Republican President] Democrats. Twenty years ago, they were the Reagan Democrats, conservative (mostly southern) Democrats and Dems who just liked President Reagan. The Bush Democrats to fly in the face of a nominee Dean would be moderate-conservative-Democrats who think that President Bush is doing a good job and dislike Howard Dean. So whereas the Reagan Dems were reacting to the President, the Bush Dems will be reacting mostly to Dean.

No matter who the Democrat nominee is, the Veep selection will not be a current candidate. It will not be Hillary. It will probably be a moderate Senator from the mid west, and Indiana’s Evan Bayh springs readily to mind.

There will be no consensus after the first ballot at the Dem convention, and then will begin a pre-planned “Draft Hillary Rodham” — Rodham, as opposed to Clinton, because the Dems will want to maintain that “wall of seperation” — movement. She will put on a public display of pensiveness, the gush for a while, the magnimously turn them down. She could never be a number two, and she probably believes the hype regarding her chances in 2008.

Things in Iraq will work out, in that they will be governing themselves by July. We’ll still be there in force to maintain order, but the Iraqi government will be functioning. I won’t predict when general elections will be held in Iraq, nor will I do so for Afghanistan. I do think, however, that the U.N. will broker some sort of peace between the Karzai government and the “moderate Taliban.” When all is said and done, they get an Islamic Republic, albeit one not modeled after Iran or Mullah Omar’s Afghanistan.

Speaking of Mullah Omar, I don’t think we’ll see him again. Like Elvis and the Sasquatch, there will be “sightings,” though, for what they are worth.

Iran, in a post-Bam gesture of good will, could offer to surrender Osama bin Laden to the United States. They’ll tip him off, of course, and he will “escape” to Pak, but Iran will then assert that they tried, hoping that eases some pressure on them. President Bush is not buying.

The economy does well enough, and my game is politics, not economics, so I won’t give you an interest rate prediction. I will say that the stock market isn’t going back, but that the dollar will remain weak.

It’s early, and I haven’t put any names in the blank spaces, but the President will have coattails and the GOP will gain eight Senate seats, including a John Thune upset of a weakened Tom Daschle. This will put them one below the magic number of 60. Max Baucus (D-Montana) will be enticed to make the switch, much to the delight of such as Rhode Island’s Linc Chafee, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, and the two gals from Maine.

[Note: Senate Minority leaders, weakened by whatever hits Daschle, are as vulnerable as weakend House Speakers, such as Washington’s Tom Foley in ‘94.]

Look for Senate conservatives to form their own caucus, but look for non-conservatives to seek to appropriate the label by joining. None of the four I beg as overjoyed at the edition of a liberal Baucus to their GOP “Mod Squad” will join. Maybe John Warner of Virginia. California’s new Republican Senator — former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin? — will not apply.

Osama bin Laden will be captured after the 2004 election. Saddam Hussein will not be tried in 2004. We’ll talk about the Cabinet after the election.

I know I have been too specific to hope for a perfect track record, but this is fun stuff. No matter how serious it seems, it has to be taken with the requisite grain of salt, or substitute if, like me, you’re keeping an eye on your BP.

Happy New Year!