With Nader, it’s for points from NEWSWEEK, according to a “web exclusive”. In the latest survey, Kerry leads Bush for 7, while three week ago, the lead was three. That’s with Nader in the race; otherwise, Kerry’s up by 8.
NEWSWEEK explains the size Kerry bounce by specifying the split polling, with Kerry leading by 2 points before the speech and 10 points afterwards.
And voters are becoming more likely to predict a Kerry victory in November: Forty-four percent say Kerry will win vs. 43 percent who predict Bush.
Look, NEWSWEEK seems to think that this is important.
To me, I wanted to see if my thinking held up and the bounce was negligible. According to this poll, it was slightly larger than negligible. It’s also not a true post-convention poll, and the three week swing is what we’ve been seeing all year.
I expect to see a slight Bush month-before-convention bounce. The campaign seems to be underway, with the Republican convention being a campaign event.
