The results of tonight’s debate will be very simple to calculate.
JF Kerry must define himself as something, in this case using foreign policy (possibly the only issue on which he can plausibly do this). He should avoid trying to explain away all the various past positions, as there is no way to try to do it before the red light begins blinking. He must prove that Iraq is “chaos, quagmire,” explain what the President has done to make it so, and then tell us what he would do to win the war. (The operative word is “WIN,” and he will use that word. He has to.)
Kerry cannot afford convolution. He would only prove a point.
President Bush has to convincingly describe the situation in Iraq and talk about what the future will be. He should also actively dismiss some of the more silly stuff from Kerry.
We’ll see he gets the memorable line off and who melts down into a lengthy, contradictory answer.
I do not think Kerry can win this debate, but he will have taken a step he has long needed to take to win this race if he defines himself. As it stands, he is not anything except “the candidate who is not Bush.” I’ve been harping at Kerry about this since last spring, and it’s time he started.
It should be a nifty show, but an hour and a half is too long for such a TV program. That being said, it could also be fun. It might depend on how it is written.
